Brazil’s Orange Forecast Announced for 2019–2020

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast


The 2019–2020 orange crop forecast for Brazil, published on May 10 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 388.89 million boxes. Box weight is 90 pounds. The forecast region includes São Paulo and the west-southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt.

The total orange production by variety is forecast as follows:
• 76.97 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi
• 19.75 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple
• 116.20 million boxes of Pera Rio
• 128.30 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha
• 47.67 million boxes of Natal

The projected figure is 36 percent above the 2018–2019 figure of 285.98 million boxes, and 21 percent larger than the average crop size for the last 10 years. The grove yield recovery was triggered mainly by a climate that favored bloom and fruit set, unlike the last crop. The average yield in this crop season is estimated at 1,051 boxes per hectare and 2.24 boxes per tree, which represents an increase in comparison to the 756 boxes per hectare and 1.63 boxes per tree harvested in the 2018–2019 crop.


Bearing trees total 173.973 million, a 0.74 percent decrease as compared to the previous inventory.

The average number of fruits per tree in April 2019, disregarding the fruit drop along the crop season, is 783. In this season, groves presented a more intense bloom determined both by the low production in the previous crop, with increased nutritional reserves in plants, and the long-term water stress trees were subject to during floral induction.

The projected average drop rate is 17.5 percent. Should this fruit drop rate hold, it will be one of the highest rates since the first crop forecast by Fundecitrus. Major reasons for this projection are the increased greening severity and the rise in the populations of fruit borer and fruit fly during the last crop season.

Source: Fundecitrus

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