Navel Orange Estimate Released for California

Len WilcoxCalifornia Corner, Crop Forecast


The U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service released the 2020-21 California Navel Orange Objective Measurement Report. The survey was conducted from June 15 to Sept. 1. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage, and oranges per box were used in the statistical models to provide an estimate of crop production.

Based on the survey, the initial production forecast is 84 million cartons (80 net pounds per box), down 5 percent from the previous year. Of the total Navel orange forecast, 81 million cartons are estimated to be in the Central Valley. Cara Cara variety Navel orange production in the Central Valley is forecast at 7 million cartons.

A Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey has been conducted in the Central Valley every year since the 1984-85 crop year, except for the 1991-92 season. The Cara Cara forecast was undertaken at the request of the California Citrus Advisory Committee.

This year’s forecast includes production of conventional, organic and specialty Navel oranges (including Cara Cara and blood orange varieties). Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 319, unchanged from the previous year but below the five-year average of 363. The average Sept. 1 diameter was 2.198 inches, below the five-year average of 2.218 inches. The Cara Cara orange set was 251 with a diameter of 2.232 inches.

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Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service