States See Changes in U.S. Citrus Forecast

Ernie NeffCrop Forecast

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) dropped another 2 million boxes from the January forecast for Florida’s orange crop but added 200,000 boxes to the state’s grapefruit projection.

Florida’s total orange crop is now forecast at 54 million boxes, down 4 percent from 56 million boxes in December. The orange reduction was in the non-Valencia crop, down from 22 million boxes to 20 million boxes. NASS reported that final droppage of non-Valencia oranges (excluding navels) at 43 percent is above the maximum and the highest in a series dating back to the 1960-61 season. The Valencia projection was unchanged at 34 million boxes.

The projection of California’s orange crop increased 500,000 boxes to 51 million boxes. The Texas orange projection was unchanged at 1.5 million boxes.

Florida’s total grapefruit crop is now expected to be 4.6 million boxes, up 5 percent from December. The additional 200,000 boxes in January were in red grapefruit, now at 3.9 million boxes. White grapefruit is unchanged at 700,000 boxes. Projected fruit size at harvest and droppage of both reds and whites are projected to be above average.  

California’s grapefruit crop forecast climbed 400,000 boxes to 4.2 million boxes. The Texas grapefruit projection rose 100,000 boxes to 5 million boxes.

The Florida tangerine and tangelo forecast was unchanged at 1.1 million boxes. California’s tangerine and tangelo projection was also unchanged at 23 million boxes.

Lemon forecasts rose for both Arizona and California. The Arizona projection climbed 600,000 boxes to 1.9 million boxes. The California forecast jumped 2 million boxes to 24 million boxes.

See the full January forecast here.

Listen to the forecast report from Mark Hudson with NASS:

The next citrus crop forecast is scheduled for Feb. 9. You can listen to it here.

Thank you to the 2020-21 citrus crop forecast sponsors: Aerobotics, Farm Credit of Florida, Labor Solutions, OrangeRX and TradeMark Nitrogen Corp.

Source: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service

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