Changes to U.S. Orange Crop Forecast

Ernie NeffCrop Forecast

orange crop

Florida’s orange crop forecast was reduced by 500,000 boxes to 55.5 million boxes in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) March 9 citrus crop forecast. This represents a 1% reduction from the February forecast. If the March projection is realized, it will be 18% lower than last season’s final production.

Florida’s Valencia orange crop forecast was reduced by 1 million boxes to 33 million boxes by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, which reported that droppage for Valencias is above the maximum and is expected to be above the maximum at harvest. Current Valencia fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest, requiring 245 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. The Valencia harvest is still in its early stages.

Florida’s non-Valencia orange projection was increased by 500,000 boxes to 22.5 million boxes. Non-Valencias were reportedly 97 percent harvested as of Feb. 25.

California’s orange crop forecast was increased by 1 million boxes to 52 million boxes. The increase was in the state’s Valencia crop, which climbed from 9 million boxes to 10 million boxes. California’s non-Valencia orange forecast was unchanged at 42 million boxes.  

The Texas orange forecast was unchanged at 1.5 million boxes; it consists of 1.3 million boxes of non-Valencias and 200,000 boxes of Valencias.  

The March grapefruit, tangerine, tangelo and lemon forecasts for all states were unchanged from the February forecasts.

See the complete March 9 forecast here.

Mark your calendar for the next USDA citrus crop forecast of the 2020-21 season. It will be on Friday, April 9, at approximately 12:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. You will be able to hear the numbers on the Citrus Industry website as they are released from USDA.

Thank you to the 2020-21 citrus crop forecast sponsors: Aerobotics, Farm Credit of Florida, Labor Solutions, OrangeRX and TradeMark Nitrogen Corp.

Source: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service

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