World Orange and OJ Production to Rise

Ernie Neff Crop Forecast


Worldwide orange and orange juice (OJ) production are projected to climb in the 2020-21 market year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported recently.

Global orange output for 2020-21 is estimated up 2.5 million tons from the previous year to 48.6 million as favorable weather leads to a larger crop in Brazil (up 7%) and Mexico (up nearly 60%). Most of the higher output is expected to go into fruit for processing.

Here’s a summary of the top 10 orange producers:

Brazil’s production is forecast up 7% to 15.9 million tons.

China’s output is projected up slightly to 7.5 million tons on favorable weather.

European Union production is expected to rise 5% to 6.5 million tons due to favorable weather and an increase in area harvested.

U.S. output is estimated to drop 12% to 4.2 million tons. Production has been trending lower for years due to HLB, with production less than one-third of what it was 20 years ago. In addition, the citrus-producing area is down by nearly 40%. See the final U.S. citrus forecast for the 2020-21 season here.

Mexico’s production is estimated to rebound to 4 million tons due to favorable weather following last year’s drought. More than 95% of Mexico’s exports are projected to go to the United States.

Egypt’s output is estimated to decrease 6% to 3.4 million tons as strong winds and high temperatures affected flowering and fruit set.

South Africa’s production is expected to increase 2% to 1.7 million tons with favorable weather, improved water management, a rise in area harvested, and new plantings of high-yielding and late-maturing varieties.

Turkey’s production is estimated to drop 24% to 1.3 million tons due to hot weather conditions in May 2020 that negatively affected the bloom.

Morocco’s output is estimated to rise more than one-third to 1.1 million tons due to favorable weather.

Argentina’s production is projected to drop 30,000 tons to 670,000 as a result of the drought that affected the crop during the spring of 2020.

Global OJ production for 2020-21 is estimated to be 13% higher than the previous year at 1.6 million tons (65 degrees Brix). With more oranges projected to be available for processing, higher output in Brazil and Mexico is expected to more than offset the U.S. decline.

Brazil’s production is forecast to climb 12% to 1 million tons. Brazil remains the largest producer and is projected to account for three-fourths of global OJ exports.

Output in the U.S. is estimated to fall 18% to 245,000 tons with the drop in oranges available for processing.

Mexico’s production is projected to more than double to 200,000 tons because of a rebound in orange production.

Output in the European Union is estimated to be up 24% to 89,000 tons on a greater quantity of oranges available for processing, especially from Spain and Italy.

See the full FAS report.

Source: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service

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