Surprising Change in Florida Orange Forecast

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast


The May 12 federal crop forecast increased Florida’s expected Valencia orange crop by 10% and reduced the state’s grapefruit projection by 6%.

The Valencia crop was increased by 2 million boxes, to 22 million boxes, in the forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service. As of late April, 88% of the Valencia crop had been harvested.

Florida’s fully harvested non-Valencia orange crop was unchanged at 18.2 million boxes, so the Florida all-orange forecast is raised 5% to 40.2 million boxes. This is the first time Florida’s all-orange forecast has increased this season; all other months saw declines. If the forecast is realized, the orange crop will be 24% less than last season’s production.

The Florida grapefruit crop forecast was trimmed from 3.6 million boxes to 3.4 million boxes. Red grapefruit and white grapefruit forecasts were each cut by 100,000 boxes, to 2.9 million boxes and 500,000 boxes, respectively.

Forecasts were unchanged for all other citrus-producing states, as well as for Florida tangerines and tangelos.

See the full forecast here.

Listen to the forecast numbers:

May 2022 U.S. Citrus Crop Forecast
May 2022 Florida Citrus Crop Forecast

The next update to the USDA citrus crop forecast is scheduled for June 10 at approximately 12 noon Eastern/9 a.m. Pacific time. Hear the broadcast at

Thank you to the 2021–22 citrus crop forecast sponsors: Aerobotics, Farm Credit of Florida and OrangeRX.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service