Changes to U.S. Citrus Crop Forecast

Tacy Callies Crop Forecast


The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) released its latest citrus crop forecast on April 11. Florida’s grapefruit crop forecast for 2022–23 rose 6%. Projected production for the state’s other citrus varieties was unchanged.

The all-grapefruit forecast for Florida is now 1.7 million boxes, up from 1.6 million boxes in March. Florida’s red grapefruit forecast rose from 1.44 million boxes in March to 1.52 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast climbed from 160,000 boxes to 180,000 boxes. A row count survey conducted March 29–30 indicated 95% of red and white grapefruit rows are harvested.

The unchanged forecasts for other Florida varieties are 16.1 million boxes of oranges (10 million Valencia and 6.1 million non-Valencia) and 500,000 boxes of tangerines and tangelos.

The final Valencia orange fruit droppage was measured at a staggering 70%, the highest in a series dating back to the 1960–61 season. Sixty-one percent of the Valencia crop was harvested as of the March 29–30 row count. The non-Valencia orange crop is completely harvested.

California’s all-orange forecast was reduced by 1 million boxes, to 45.1 million boxes. The entire reduction was in the non-Valencia crop.

California grapefruit dropped 100,000 boxes to 4.2 million boxes. California tangerines and tangelos dipped 1 million boxes to 21 million boxes. The state’s lemon forecast rose by 1 million boxes to 23 million boxes.  

The Texas all-orange forecast dipped from 1.15 million boxes to 1.05 million boxes. The non-Valencia crop decreased by 200,000 boxes. The Valencia crop climbed 100,000 boxes.

Texas grapefruit climbed 200,000 boxes to 2.4 million boxes.

Arizona’s lemon crop forecast climbed 200,000 boxes to 1.7 million boxes.

See the full citrus forecast report here.

Listen to the Florida forecast:

Florida forecast

Listen to the full U.S. forecast:

U.S. forecast

The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on May 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. EDT on the Citrus Industry website.

Coverage of the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.