Florida Citrus Forecast Sees Small Changes

Tacy Callies Crop Forecast

© Florida Department of Citrus

With the 2022–23 season harvest virtually completed for all varieties, the June citrus forecast for Florida had several slight changes. The Florida orange and grapefruit forecasts each climbed 1% from May, while the tangerines/tangelos forecast dropped 2%.

Forecasts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) were unchanged for Arizona, California and Texas.

Florida’s all-orange forecast rose 100,000 boxes to 15.75 million boxes. The entire increase was in the Valencia orange crop, now forecast at 9.6 million boxes. The fully harvested non-Valencia crop was unchanged at 6.15 million boxes. The prior season’s (2021–22) Florida all-orange crop was pegged at 41.2 million boxes.

USDA NASS noted that changes between the June Florida all-orange forecast and the final estimates during the past 20 years have averaged 1.13 million boxes. The changes have ranged from 0.1 million boxes to 5.3 million boxes, including abnormal seasons. The June all-orange forecast has been below the final estimate 14 times, and above the final estimate six times.    

The Florida all-grapefruit crop rose by 20,000 boxes, to 1.82 million boxes. Red and white grapefruit varieties each climbed by 10,000 boxes since the May forecast, to 1.57 million boxes and 250,000 boxes, respectively. The prior season’s all-Florida grapefruit crop size was 3.33 million boxes.

Specialty varieties dipped 10,000 boxes from the May forecast, to 490,000 boxes. This season’s production was 35% lower than the prior season’s 750,000 boxes.  

See the full USDA NASS forecast here.  

Hear the Florida citrus crop forecast:

The next update to the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast will be on July 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.

Coverage of the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.