Final U.S. Citrus Forecast Has Several Changes

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast


The final U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) citrus forecast for the 2022–23 season, issued July 12, has several changes from the June forecast.

Florida’s all-orange forecast rose approximately 1% to 15.85 million boxes, up 100,000 boxes from June. The full increase is in the Valencia orange forecast, which rose to 9.7 million boxes.

Florida’s all-grapefruit forecast dipped approximately 1% to 1.81 million boxes, down 10,000 boxes from June. The full decrease was in the red varieties, now forecast at 1.56 million boxes.

The forecast for tangerines and tangelos in Florida dropped approximately 2% to 480,000 boxes, a decline of 10,000 boxes.

California’s all-orange forecast dipped to 44 million boxes, down 1.1 million boxes from the June forecast. The full decrease was in the Valencia variety, now forecast at 7 million boxes.

California’s lemon forecast dropped to 20 million boxes, down 3 million boxes from June.

The California tangerine and tangelo forecast rose 1 million boxes from June and now stands at 22 million boxes.

The Texas all-orange forecast climbed to 1.13 million boxes, up 80,000 boxes from June.

The grapefruit forecast for Texas dropped to 2.23 million boxes, down 170,000 boxes from June.

Arizona’s lemon forecast tumbled by 300,000 boxes to 1.4 million boxes.

See the full USDA NASS forecast here.

The first USDA NASS citrus crop forecast of the 2023–24 season will be released on Oct. 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.

Florida citrus growers are hoping for better production in 2023–24 as the industry recovers from hurricanes that knocked off much of the 2022–23 season’s fruit in 2022. Many growers are also hopeful that promising trunk injections of antibiotics will increase the crop size.   

Coverage of the USDA NASS citrus crop forecast is brought to you by Farm Credit and Florida Citrus Mutual.