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Ups and Downs Expected for EU Citrus Crops

Tacy CalliesCrop Forecast, International

expected

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently projected the European Union (EU) tangerine and mandarin crop will decline in 2023–24. The EU grapefruit crop is expected to rise compared to the prior season.

TANGERINES AND MANDARINS
EU tangerine and mandarin production in 2023–24 is forecast at 2.7 million metric tons (MMT), down from 2.8 MMT in the previous season. All major producers are forecast to have production declines.

Italy’s tangerine and mandarin production is forecast to decline by nearly 10% due to abnormally hot temperatures in Sicily, one of Italy’s largest growing regions.

In Greece, 2023–24 tangerine production is expected to decrease by 15% due to adverse weather in western Greece, which impacted Clementine yields severely.

In Spain, the EU’s largest mandarin and tangerine producer, 2023–24 production is projected down. However, the production decline in mandarins and tangerines in Spain is not anticipated to be as steep as in Greece or Italy.

EU is a net importer of mandarins. In 2023–24, tangerine and mandarin imports by the EU are forecast to be very similar to previous season levels. South Africa, Morocco, Israel and Turkey are the EU’s leading suppliers of mandarins and tangerines.

The reduced domestic availability, driven by the shorter EU crop, is expected to limit export potential in 2023–24. EU’s main export market destinations include the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ukraine, Norway and Serbia.

GRAPEFRUIT
EU grapefruit production is forecast at 104,000 metric tons (MT) in 2023–24, up from the 98,000 MT in 2022–23.

The recovery can be entirely attributed to the production rebound in Spain. Spain is the largest grapefruit-producing EU country, accounting on average for nearly 75% of the EU’s total production.

Stable production is projected for other EU grapefruit producers, including Cyprus, Italy and Greece.

In 2023–24, EU imports of grapefruit are expected to decline given the recovery anticipated in internal availability. In 2022–23, imports of grapefruit contracted significantly. South Africa, especially in the off season, followed by China, Turkey, Israel and the United States, are the EU’s main grapefruit suppliers.

EU grapefruit exports are small but expected to expand marginally in 2023–24. Main destination markets for EU grapefruit include the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Ukraine and Russia.

EU orange and OJ production is expected to decline; read more here.

See the full USDA FAS report on EU citrus.

Source: USDA FAS