Long-Term U.S. Production Projections

Daniel Cooper Crop Forecast

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Total U.S. citrus production levels are projected to continue their long-term decline before stabilizing through 2033, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Office of the Chief Economist recently reported. The trend is attributed to declining orange and grapefruit production alongside increasing production of lemons and tangerines.

In the report, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2033, total U.S. citrus production is projected to decline from about 11.2 billion pounds in 2022 to approximately 9.9 billion pounds in 2024. Production is then projected to remain fairly stable for several years, with 11.1 billion pounds produced in 2033.


California is expected to remain the production leader of fresh oranges, grapefruit, tangerines and lemons but is expected to see mild reductions to the volume of its grapefruit and orange crops. Grapefruit and oranges are projected to lose market share to other citrus and non-citrus fruits. California production of lemons and tangerines, including easy-peel mandarins, is expected to increase throughout the projection period.

Florida production of oranges, grapefruit and tangerines is expected to continue its decades-long decline as citrus groves are converted to other uses.


The total value of citrus production in the United States is projected to increase 25% during the 2022–23 period due to higher prices. The projected farm value of U.S. citrus is pegged at $2.98 billion in 2022, rising to $3.7 billion in 2033.


Net farm income for all agriculture is expected to decrease $7.3 billion, or 4.8%, from $151.1 billion in 2023 to $143.8 billion in 2024, the office reported. Net farm income is projected at only $123.6 billion in 2033. Lower cash receipts, due to lower commodity prices, are the primary contributors to the projected decline in net farm income for 2024 relative to 2023.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Office of the Chief Economist

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