valencia orange

Valencia Orange Forecast for California

Daniel Cooper California Corner, Crop Forecast

valencia orange

California’s 2023–24 Valencia orange forecast, issued by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), is 16 million cartons. The forecast was based on the results of the 2023–24 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey conducted from Jan. 2 to Feb. 27.

CDFA reported that Southern and Central California have received significantly more rain than usual over the winter and spring, leading to some groves being flooded.

Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 529, a 14% decrease from the previous year and 7% below the five-year average of 567.

The average March 1 fruit diameter was 2.433 inches, up 2% from the previous year but 2% below the five-year average of 2.481.


The 2023–24 16-million-carton forecast is larger than California Valencia production in the previous three seasons. Final utilized Valencia production was 13.4 million cartons in 2022–23, 15.2 million cartons in 2021–22 and 15.4 million cartons in 2020–21.

California Valencia production has dwindled since 30 million cartons were produced on 43,000 bearing acres in 2009–10. There are now only 25,000 acres of bearing Valencias in California. The average number of Valencia trees per acre in California has been 124 or 123 every year since 2008–09. 


For the survey, a sample of 375 Valencia orange groves was randomly selected proportional to acreage, county, year planted and variety representation in the state, with 348 of these groves being utilized in this survey. The sampled groves were primarily in the top Valencia orange-producing counties of Tulare, Kern, San Diego, Ventura and Fresno.

A Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey was conducted from the 1985–86 to 1993–94 seasons before suspension due to a lack of funding. The survey has been conducted yearly since it was reinstated for the 1999–00 season, with the exception of the 2006–07 season due to a substantial freeze.

The forecast was issued in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture

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