April Citrus Forecast: Florida Down, Other States Up

Daniel CooperCrop Forecast


The U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) issued a citrus forecast update on April 11. Florida production decreased while other states saw gains.


The forecast for all Florida oranges dropped 5% from 19.8 million boxes in the March forecast to 18.8 million boxes in April. The entire 1 million box reduction was in the late-season Valencia variety, which dipped to 12 million boxes.

The non-Valencia harvest is complete, and 51% of the Valencia crop had been harvested as of late March. Final Valencia fruit size is below the average, requiring 271 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage, measured at 50%, is above the average.

The Florida grapefruit forecast dropped 9% from 2.2 million boxes in March to 2 million boxes in April. The forecast for red grapefruit dipped from 1.9 million boxes to 1.75 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast dropped from 300,000 boxes to 250,000 boxes. By late March, 97% of red and white grapefruit rows had been harvested.

The forecast for Florida tangerines and tangelos is unchanged at 500,000 boxes.


There were several positive forecast changes in other citrus-producing states.

In Texas, the all-orange crop forecast rose from 950,000 boxes to 1.1 million boxes. There were increases for both Valencia and non-Valencia oranges. The Texas grapefruit forecast climbed from 2.35 million boxes to 2.6 million boxes.

California’s grapefruit forecast rose from 3.8 million boxes to 4.1 million boxes, and its lemon forecast climbed from 20 million boxes to 22 million boxes.

The Arizona lemon forecast rose from 900,000 boxes to 1.05 million boxes.

See the full USDA NASS citrus crop forecast report here.

The next update to the citrus crop forecast will be on May 10 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.


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