The U.S. Department of Agriculture Agricultural Statistics Board released its first forecast of the 2024–25 citrus season on Oct. 11. The report does not reflect the damage to the Florida citrus industry inflicted by Hurricane Milton. The Dec. 10 forecast update is expected to take that damage into account.
“The forecast for the season is extremely discouraging. Before Hurricane Milton swept through Florida’s citrus belt this week, citrus growers were optimistic about the health of their groves and were hopeful for the prospect of a fruitful season. After years of battling citrus greening and trying to recover from Hurricane Ian two years ago, we were beginning to see tree health and bloom improve with the treatments and therapies deployed in the groves,” said Matt Joyner, executive vice president and chief executive officer of Florida Citrus Mutual.
FLORIDA ORANGES
For now, Florida all-orange production is forecast at 15 million boxes, down 16% from last season’s final production. Non-Valencia oranges, down 11%, are estimated at 6 million boxes, while Valencia oranges are forecast at 9 million boxes, down 20%.
The Navel orange forecast, at 190,000 boxes, accounts for 3% of the non-Valencia total. The Navel crop of 190,000 boxes is 6% more than last season’s production.
The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 30.3 million. Trees planted in 2021 and earlier are considered bearing for this season.
The estimated number of non-Valencia bearing trees (without Navels) is 9.72 million, down 17% from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree for non-Valencias is 392 pieces, an increase of 50 pieces from last season. Projected fruit size is below the minimum, requiring an estimated 344 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. At 31%, projected droppage is slightly below average.
The estimated number of bearing Valencia trees is 20.1 million, down 11% from the previous season. The estimated fruit per tree is 244, a decrease of 35 pieces from last season, and the lowest in a series dating back to the 1964–65 season. Projected fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 266 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Projected droppage is above average at 38%.
FLORIDA GRAPEFRUIT
Florida all-grapefruit production is forecast at 1.4 million boxes, down 22% from last season. The total is comprised of 1.2 million boxes of red grapefruit and 200,000 boxes of white grapefruit.
Red bearing trees are down 2% from last season’s revised numbers. The average fruit per tree, at 271 pieces, is 85 pieces less than last season. Fruit droppage is projected to be about average. Fruit size is expected to be above average.
White grapefruit bearing trees declined by 8% from last season’s revised numbers. The average fruit per tree, at 369 pieces, is 110 pieces less than last season, and only six pieces more than the eight-year season minimum. Current fruit sizes are above average and expected to be above average at harvest. Final drop is expected to be slightly above average.
FLORIDA TANGERINES/TANGELOS AND LEMONS
The forecast for Florida tangerine and tangelos is 400,000 boxes, 11% less than last season’s utilization of 450,000 boxes.
New this season, Florida lemons were included in the forecast report. The state is expected to produce 500,000 boxes of lemons.
CALIFORNIA
California’s orange production is estimated to more than triple that of Florida.California all oranges are forecast at 47.7 million boxes, up slightly from last season, with 39 million boxes of non-Valencias and 8.7 million boxes of Valencias.
California grapefruit production is estimated to be 4.2 million boxes, down from last season’s 4.3 million boxes.
Lemon production in California is up from 24.6 million boxes last season to 26 million boxes this season.
The state’s tangerine and mandarin forecast is 25 million boxes, down from 27.4 million boxes.
TEXAS
Texas is poised to produce 850,000 boxes of oranges, a significant decrease from the 1.18 million boxes it produced in 2023–24. Valencia oranges are forecast at 450,000 boxes and non-Valencias at 400,000 boxes.
Grapefruit production is also expected to be down in Texas, falling from 2.4 to 1.9 million boxes.
See the full USDA forecast report here.
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