China, the world’s largest citrus producer, is forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) to produce 7.62 million metric tons (MMT) of oranges in marketing year 2024–25. That’s a slight reduction from prior year production of 7.63 MMT.
A range of weather-related issues is threatening orange production, including persistent rain in April and May that has caused lower fruit setting rates, as well as high temperatures in August and September.
Traders expect average orchard prices to remain similar to last year.
USDA FAS expects China’s orange imports for 2024–25 to be 150,000 MMT, down 6% from the previous year. Orange exports are expected to increase to 160,000 metric tons (MT) in 2024–25, from 155,000 MT the prior year.
Orange juice (OJ) production in 2024–25 is forecast at 17,800 MT, up slightly from the previous year. This reflects the increasing volume of oranges to be delivered for processing, as well as several new investors’ entering the industry. Nongfu for example, launched its Nongfu Spring 17.5 not-from-concentrate OJ in 2016. In addition to importing the juice ingredients, the company recently began growing suitable oranges for juice processing in the provinces of Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei.
Frozen OJ imports in 2024–25 are forecast to be slightly down at 111,000 MT, as limited availability of supplies from Brazil are expected to continue to put pressure on prices. China’s juice processors traditionally rely on Brazilian supplies, which are expected to be down again in 2024–25.
Total OJ exports in 2024–25 are forecast at 6,400 MT, flat and in line with the significantly revised 2023–24 exports. Other Asian countries are expected to continue to rely on China to help fill the gap created from Brazil’s rising prices and limited supplies.
Top OJ export destinations in 2023–24 were Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Taiwan, North Korea, United Arab Emirates, Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.
See the full USDA FAS report on China citrus here.
Source: USDA FAS
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