Total U.S. citrus production levels are projected to continue their long-term decline over the next several years before stabilizing through 2034, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). It attributed that expected trend to declining orange and grapefruit production alongside increasing production of lemons and tangerines.
The projections for all U.S. commodities are in USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034, released in February. USDA called the projections “a departmental consensus on a conditional long-run scenario.” The report came from USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist, World Agricultural Outlook Board.
USDA projects U.S. citrus production to reach these levels in each of the next 10 years:
- 2025: 10.04 million pounds
- 2026: 10.75 million pounds
- 2027: 10.27 million pounds
- 2028: 9.95 million pounds
- 2029: 9.80 million pounds
- 2030: 9.67 million pounds
- 2031: 9.59 million pounds
- 2032: 9.56 million pounds
- 2033: 9.60 million pounds
- 2034: 9.68 million pounds
CALIFORNIA TO MAINTAIN LEAD
California is expected to remain the U.S. production leader for fresh oranges, grapefruit, tangerines and lemons. The state is expected to see mild contraction in the volume of its grapefruit and orange crops, as it loses domestic market share to other citrus and non-citrus fruits. Production in California of lemons and tangerines (a group that includes easy-peel mandarins) is expected to increase through 2034.
FLORIDA DECLINE TO CONTINUE
Florida production of oranges, grapefruit and tangerines is expected to continue its decades-long decline as citrus groves are converted to other uses. Similar production and acreage changes are expected for orange and grapefruit orchards in Texas and lemon orchards in Arizona, which account for a relatively small share of combined U.S. citrus production.
IMPROVED PRICES
Total value of citrus production in the United States is projected to increase from $2.975 billion in 2025 to $3.605 billion in 2034 as a result of higher prices.
Source: USDA
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