The AccuWeather 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast predicts 13 to 18 named storms this year. Seven to 10 of those storms are expected to strengthen into hurricanes. Three to five of the storms are predicted to strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 hurricane or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Category 3 hurricanes have maximum sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph.
By comparison, five hurricanes and one unnamed subtropical storm made landfall in the United States in 2024.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
AREAS OF HIGH RISK
AccuWeather hurricane experts say early tropical development in May is possible this year due to exceptionally warm water temperatures expected across much of the Atlantic basin. Texas, Louisiana, the western coast of Florida, North Carolina and Atlantic Canada face a higher risk of direct impacts this hurricane season, compared to the historical average.
“Similar to last year, northern and eastern portions of the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “Atlantic Canada and the northeastern Caribbean are also at an increased risk of direct impacts.”
SIMILAR SEASONS
AccuWeather identified 12 analog years, which are years in recent history when weather patterns were similar to what is happening now. The 2017 and 2023 seasons were some of the most recent years with strong similarities.
Hurricane Harvey caused catastrophic flooding across Texas in August during the 2017 hurricane season. One month later, Hurricane Irma blasted parts of the Caribbean and much of Florida. Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico and parts of the Caribbean in Sept. 2017 before taking aim at the southeastern United States. Hurricane Idalia slammed northern Florida in August of 2023 before bringing flooding rainfall and damaging wind gusts across the Southeast.
KEY FACTORS
Water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and the Gulf are one of the biggest factors for tropical development. AccuWeather hurricane experts say water temperatures across much of the Atlantic basin are well above historical average levels right now, and they are forecast to remain at elevated temperatures into the heart of hurricane season.
AccuWeather experts say the frequency, intensity and peak of tropical activity this year could be heavily influenced by several factors. This includes the location of an area of high pressure over the open Atlantic, water temperatures off the western coast of Africa, water temperatures in the open Pacific Ocean, and dust that can impact storms that blow across Africa.
See how the AccuWeather hurricane forecast compares to the recently released Colorado State University hurricane forecast.
Source: AccuWeather
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