The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), cooperating with the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service, has forecast California’s 2024–25 Valencia orange production at 15 million cartons. California’s final utilized production the prior season was 18.6 million cartons. Cartons have a standard equivalent weight of 40 pounds.
CDFA reported there are 25,000 bearing Valencia acres in 2024–25, down from 25,500 acres the prior year. There were an average of 124 trees per acre both years.
Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 552 in 2024–25, a 4.3% increase from the previous year and 1.1% below the five-year average of 558. The average March 1 diameter was 2.39 inches, down 1.7% from the previous year and down 2.8% from the five-year average of 2.46.
A sample of 330 Valencia orange groves was randomly selected proportional to acreage, county, year planted and variety representation in the state, with 301 of these groves utilized in this survey. The sampled groves were primarily in the top Valencia orange-producing counties of Tulare, Kern, San Diego and Ventura.
A Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey was conducted from the 1985–86 to 1993–94 seasons before suspension due to a lack of funding. The survey has been conducted since it was reinstated for the 1999–00 season, with the exception of the 2006–07 season due to a substantial freeze. The data from the first three years after the survey was reinstated were used for research purposes in developing crop-estimating models.
The forecast was based on the results of the 2024–25 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from Jan. 13 to Feb. 8. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and oranges per carton were used in the statistical models estimating production.
Source: CDFA
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