Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers on June 11 maintained their April forecast for an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
CSU’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team cited above-average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for its prediction.
While the June forecast has historically exhibited higher levels of accuracy than the April forecast, researchers caution that there is more uncertainty with the June forecast this year than last year. They noted that the primary climate signals (Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies) are somewhat weaker than they were last year at this time. While the odds of El Niño this hurricane season are low, they are still considerably higher than they were for last year’s hurricane season.
NINE HURRICANES PREDICTED
The CSU team predicts 17 named storms and nine hurricanes in the 2025 season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Of those nine projected hurricanes, four are projected to reach major hurricane strength (Saffir/Simpson Category 3, 4 or 5) with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.
“So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the forecast report.
The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991 to 2020. By comparison, 2024’s hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season.
LANDFALL PROBABILITY
The report includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:
- 51% for the entire U.S. coastline
- 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula
- 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas
- 56% for the Caribbean
Get more details in CSU’s June forecast report.
Source: CSU
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