Colorado State University (CSU) on Aug. 6 maintained its forecast for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season, although noting lower-than-normal confidence in the latest outlook.
CSU hurricane forecasters report that sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic have anomalously warmed over the past few weeks and are now somewhat warmer than normal. Multiple indicators anticipate likely cool El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Warm sea surface temperatures and ENSO neutral conditions typically provide a more conducive environment for hurricane formation and intensification.
The primary reason for the uncertainty in the outlook is the high observed Caribbean shear over recent weeks. Typically, high levels of Caribbean shear in June and July are associated with less active hurricane seasons.
CSU anticipates a slightly above average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean for the remainder of the hurricane season. The probabilities CSU cites for at least one major hurricane making landfall on each of the following U.S. coastal areas after Aug. 5 are:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline – 48% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
- U.S. East Coast including Peninsular Florida (south and east of Cedar Key) – 24% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 31% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
CSU’s forecast for 2025 named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes remains unchanged from July at 16, 8 and 3, respectively. In April and June, CSU had projected slightly higher figures for 2025: 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
See CSU’s full August hurricane forecast here.
Source: CSU