Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continue to forecast an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. On Aug. 7, they updated the number of expected named storms to 13 to 18 (with winds of 39 mph or greater). Of those storms, five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including two to five major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
The adjusted ranges are for the entire season from June 1 through Nov. 30. In the Atlantic basin, a typical hurricane season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.
The likelihood of above-normal activity is 50%. There’s a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 15% chance of a below-normal season. This updated prediction is similar to the initial outlook issued in May.
Tropical Storm Chantal made the first U.S. landfall of the season and brought high winds and deadly flooding to the Carolinas during Independence Day weekend.
Atlantic basin tropical storm activity is expected to be elevated due to a combination of factors. Those factors include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an active West African Monsoon. Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions are expected to continue, meaning there is neither an El Niño nor La Niña to influence this season’s storm activity.
“Many of the factors we identified ahead of the season are still at play, and conditions are largely tracking along with our May predictions,” said Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. See the full Aug. 7 hurricane forecast here.
Colorado State University also recently updated its Atlantic hurricane season forecast; see it here.
Source: NOAA
Share this Post