University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences photo
The initial 2025–26 California navel orange forecast is 80 million cartons, up 6% from the previous year. It was issued Sept. 12 by the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), cooperating with the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service.
The forecast is based on results of the 2025–26 Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey, conducted from June 12 to Aug. 21. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and oranges per box were used in the statistical models estimating production. The forecast includes production of conventional, organic and specialty navel oranges. This includes Cara Cara and Blood orange varieties.
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 375, down 9% from the previous year. The average diameter from the survey was 2.179 inches, up 6% from last year.
Bearing acreage is estimated at 109,000, which results in a forecasted yield of 734 cartons per acre.
CARA CARA
Cara Cara variety production is forecast at 10 million cartons. Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 290, down 4% from the previous year but 8% above the five-year average of 269. The average diameter from the survey was 2.216 inches, 3% above the previous year and 2% above the five-year average of 2.171 inches.
The Cara Cara forecast was undertaken at the request of the California Citrus Advisory Committee starting with the 2018–19 crop year.
SURVEY SAMPLE AND HISTORY
A sample of 804 navel orange groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, and 753 of the groves were utilized in this survey. Of these groves, 133 were in Fresno County, 420 were in Tulare County, 174 were in Kern County and 26 were in other counties.
A Navel Orange Objective Measurement Survey has been conducted in the Central Valley every year since the 1984–85 crop year, except for the 1991–92 season due to a lack of funding. Data from the first two years were used for research purposes in developing crop-estimating models.
See the full navel orange forecast here.
Source: CDFA
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