The 2025–26 California forecast for Tango and W. Murcott Afourer mandarin varieties, released Sept. 12, is 33 million 40-pound cartons. The forecast came from the California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), cooperating with the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS).
The forecast is based on the results of the 2025–26 Mandarin Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from July 1 to Aug. 28. Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and mandarins per box were used in the statistical models estimating production.
Survey data indicated a fruit set per tree of 504, down 24% from the previous year. The average diameter from the survey was 1.359 inches, up 1% from last year for these varieties. Bearing acreage is estimated at 35,000, which results in a yield of 943 40-pound cartons per acre.
This is the third year the USDA NASS Pacific Regional Office has published a production forecast of Tango and W. Murcott Afourer mandarin varieties. Fruit counts and size measurements have been collected each year since 2020 to build the dataset for the statistical models.
A sample of 337 Tango and W. Murcott Afourer mandarin groves was randomly selected proportional to county and variety bearing acreage, with 332 of those groves utilized in the survey. The most groves surveyed, 159, were in Tulare County, followed by Kern (80), Fresno (52) and Madera (33). Only eight groves were surveyed in other counties.
Funding for the survey was provided by the California citrus industry. See the full forecast here.
Source: CDFA
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