The first federal forecast of the 2025–26 citrus season, issued Jan. 12, calls for continued decreased production of Florida oranges and grapefruit. The Florida lemon forecast increased and exceeds the state’s tangerine/mandarin forecast, which is flat. Other citrus-producing states are also included in the forecast, which was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
FLORIDA
Total orange production is forecast at 12 million boxes, down 2% from the prior season. Non-Valencia orange production is projected at 4.5 million boxes, down 2% from last season. Valencia orange production is projected at 7.5 million boxes, down 1% from last season.
The number of bearing non-Valencia trees (including Navels) is 6.71 million, down 23% from the previous season. The fruit per tree is 408 pieces, an increase of 27 pieces from last season. Final fruit size is smaller than the average, requiring 319 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage of non-Valencia oranges (excluding Navels) at 40% is above average.
The number of bearing Valencia trees (14 million) is down 18% from the previous season. The fruit per tree is 288, an increase of 52 pieces from last season. Projected final fruit size is below average, requiring an estimated 256 pieces of fruit to fill a 90-pound box. Projected final Valencia droppage is above average at 40%.
Total grapefruit production is forecast at 1.2 million boxes, down 8% from last season. Red grapefruit at 1.1 million boxes and white grapefruit at 100,000 boxes are both down from last season.
Bearing red grapefruit trees are down 1% from last season. The average fruit per tree at 254 pieces is 13 pieces less than last season. At 33%, fruit droppage is projected to be average. Fruit size in the final month is expected to be above average.
White grapefruit bearing trees declined by 1% from last season’s revised bearing tree numbers. The average fruit per tree at 297 pieces is 72 pieces less than last season. The current fruit size is average, and at the rate of growth measured in last month’s survey, it is expected to be above average. Final drop is expected to be average.
Florida’s tangerine/mandarin production is forecast at 400,000 boxes, the same as last season.
The forecast of lemons is 700,000 boxes, an increase of 4% from last season.
“While this year’s initial crop estimate is lower than we would like, production is making steady gains on a per-acre basis and … growers are reporting healthier trees and larger fruit,” said Matt Joyner, executive vice president and chief executive officer of Florida Citrus Mutual. “Innovative treatments, therapies and disease-tolerant trees are making a real difference.”
OTHER STATES
Production forecasts for California are as follows:
- 45.5 million boxes of oranges, up from 45.2 million last season
- 4.3 million boxes of grapefruit, up from 4.1 million boxes
- 25 million boxes of lemons, down from 25.8 million boxes
- 27 million boxes of tangerines/mandarins, down from 30.1 million boxes
The forecast for Texas oranges is 900,000 boxes, up from 850,000 boxes. Texas grapefruit is forecast at 2.2 million boxes, up from 2 million boxes and nearly double of the Florida grapefruit forecast.
The Arizona lemon forecast inched to 1.15 million boxes, from 1.12 million boxes last season.
See the full NASS forecast here.
The next NASS citrus forecast for the 2025–26 citrus season will be issued at approximately 12 p.m. on April 9.
Source: NASS
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