The U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) recently issued its 2025–26 forecasts for South African grapefruit, tangerines/mandarins and lemons.
GRAPEFRUIT
South African grapefruit production is forecast to increase by 1% to 430,000 metric tons (MT).
The area planted with grapefruit is 8,150 hectares. This production area declined from 2020–21 to 2022–23 and appears to have stabilized since then, as growers limit new plantings and uproot older trees. This decline reflects a steady downward trend in global grapefruit consumption.
Grapefruit exports in 2025–26 are forecast to increase by 4% from the prior year to 255,000 MT. The European Union (EU) remains the largest market for South African grapefruit, accounting for 38% of exports in 2023–24.
Imports are forecast to increase to 8,000 MT in 2025–26, up from 6,000 MT in the prior year.
TANGERINES AND MANDARINS
South African tangerine and mandarin production is forecast to increase by 2% from the prior year to 1 million metric tons (MMT).
The area planted with tangerines/mandarins (also known as soft citrus) is forecast to increase by 1% to 27,500 hectares.
Exports of tangerines/mandarins are projected to increase by 3% from the prior year to 875,000 MT. The EU and the United Kingdom are the largest foreign markets for South African soft citrus, accounting for 44% of total exports. They are followed by Russia (10%), United Arab Emirates (8%) and the United States (6%)
South Africa’s tangerine/mandarin imports are minimal and are forecast at 4,000 MT, the same as the prior year.
LEMONS
South African lemon production in 2025–26 is forecast to increase by 4% from the prior year to 840,000 MT.
South Africa’s lemon production area is projected to remain unchanged at 17,500 hectares.
Lemon exports are projected to increase by 6% to 690,000 MT. The EU remained the largest market for South African lemons in 2023–24, accounting for nearly 40% of exports. The United Arab Emirates received 14% of exports, and Russia accounted for 8%.
South African lemon imports are projected to remain steady at 3,000 MT in 2025–26.
See the full USDA FAS citrus report for South Africa here.
Source: USDA FAS
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