The March forecast for California’s 2025–26 Valencia orange crop is 17 million 40-pound cartons.
The forecast is based on the results of the 2025–26 Valencia Orange Objective Measurement Survey, which was conducted from Jan. 10 to Feb. 10. The California Department of Food and Agriculture (CDFA), in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service, prepared the forecast.
Estimated fruit set per tree, fruit diameter, trees per acre, bearing acreage and oranges per carton were used in the statistical models estimating production.
INCREASES EXPECTED
Survey data indicated an average fruit set per tree of 657, a 19% increase from the previous year and 18% above the five-year average of 557.
The average March 1 diameter was 2.555 inches, up 7% from the previous year and 5% higher than the five-year average of 2.445.
According to the forecast, California has 24,500 bearing acres of Valencia oranges. There is an average of 124 trees per acre.
PRIOR YEARS
Last season (2024–25), 14.6 million cartons of Valencia oranges were produced, compared to a forecast of 15 million cartons. Production in 2023–24 was 18.6 million cartons, compared to a forecast of 16 million cartons.
California Valencia production has gradually declined since 28 million cartons were produced on 40,000 bearing acres in 2011–12.
THE SURVEY SAMPLE
For the current forecast, a sample of 330 Valencia orange groves were randomly selected proportional to acreage, county, year planted and variety representation in the state, with 313 of these groves being utilized in the survey. The sampled groves were primarily in the top Valencia orange-producing counties of Tulare, Kern, San Diego and Ventura.
Funding for the survey was provided by the California citrus industry.
See the full forecast report here.
Source: CDFA
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