Despite a winter freeze in Florida that many thought would reduce the citrus crop, the April 9 federal citrus forecast increased production estimates for all Florida varieties. The forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) also included forecasts for other U.S. citrus-producing states.
FLORIDA
The new orange forecast for Florida is 12.2 million boxes, up from 12 million boxes in January. If realized, this will be 2% more than the January forecast but 1% less than last season’s revised production.
The orange forecast consists of 4.7 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (an increase from January) and 7.5 million boxes of Valencia oranges (the same as January). The non-Valencia harvest is over for the season. Final fruit size for Valencia oranges is below the average, requiring 257 pieces to fill a 90-pound box. Final droppage, measured at 46%, is above the average.
The forecast for Florida grapefruit production is up 4%, showing an increase of 50,000 boxes to 1.25 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is down 20,000 boxes to 80,000 boxes. The red grapefruit forecast is increased by 70,000 boxes to 1.17 million boxes.
The forecast for Florida lemons is 900,000 boxes, up 29% from January.
The forecast for Florida tangerines and tangelos is up 13%, moving from 400,000 boxes in January to 450,000 boxes in April.
CALIFORNIA
The California all-orange forecast is 48.5 million boxes, up from 45.5 million boxes in January.
California’s grapefruit forecast is unchanged at 4.3 million boxes.
The California lemon forecast rose by 1 million boxes to a total of 26 million boxes.
The California tangerine/mandarin forecast is 30 million boxes, up from 27 million boxes in January.
TEXAS
The Texas orange forecast is 910,000 boxes, up from 900,000 boxes in January.
Texas grapefruit is now forecast at 2 million boxes, down from January’s 2.2 million boxes.
ARIZONA
The forecast for Arizona lemons is 950,000 boxes, down from 1.15 million boxes in January.
MORE INFORMATION
See the full forecast report here.
The next, and final, forecast for the 2025–26 citrus season will be issued at approximately 12 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on July 10.
Source: USDA NASS