The final federal citrus crop forecast of the 2025–26 citrus season, issued July 10, projects increased production for Florida citrus varieties compared to the April forecast.
The July forecast, issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS), also includes forecasts for other U.S. citrus-producing states.
FLORIDA
The final orange forecast for Florida is 12.92 million boxes, up 6% from April’s 12.2 million boxes. The orange forecast consists of 4.77 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges and 8.15 million boxes Valencias.
Florida grapefruit production is forecast at 1.35 million boxes, up 8% from the 1.25 million boxes forecasted in April.
The forecast for Florida lemons is unchanged at 900,000 boxes.
Florida tangerines and tangelos are forecast up 2% to 460,000 boxes, an increase of 10,000 boxes.
“Growers have been working toward a time such as this, when citrus production is on the upswing,” said Matt Joyner, executive vice president and chief executive officer of Florida Citrus Mutual. “This final citrus crop estimate of the season is exciting to see, and it’s encouraging to end a season marked by historic freezing on a positive note. This progress is a testament to the perseverance of our state’s citrus growers, the dedication of researchers, and the commitment of our state and federal leaders for championing this industry and investing in the tools driving its revitalization. Florida’s citrus growers remain focused on carrying this momentum forward into next year’s harvest season.”
Florida Citrus Mutual added that Florida growers reported improved tree health and fruit quality throughout the 2025-26 season.
OTHER STATES
The final California all-orange forecast is 49.5 million boxes, up from 48.5 million boxes in April. California’s grapefruit (4.3 million boxes) and lemon (26 million boxes) forecasts are unchanged. The tangerine/mandarin California forecast is 31 million boxes, up from 30 million boxes in April.
Texas also saw increases in the state’s citrus production. The Texas orange forecast is 1.09 million boxes, up from 910,000 boxes in April. The Texas grapefruit forecast is 2.1 million boxes, up from 2 million boxes in April.
The only decrease in the final forecast was for Arizona lemons, which are forecast at 720,000 boxes, down from 950,000 boxes in April.
See the full forecast report from USDA NASS here. The first forecast of the 2026-27 season is scheduled for Oct. 9.
Source: USDA NASS