U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)/National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) June 2018 Florida Citrus Crop Forecast
Mark your calendar! The final USDA Citrus Crop Forecast of the 2017-18 season is will be Thursday, July 12, 2018, at approximately 12 noon Eastern Daylight Time/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. You will be able to tune in and hear the numbers as they are given by Mark Hudson from USDA/NASS headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Coverage of the Citrus Crop Forecast is brought to you by
“The four basic parameters used in the forecast are number of bearing trees, number of fruit per tree, fruit size and fruit loss from droppage. The first two of these parameters have the greatest influence on the forecast.
“The general model incorporates the estimated total fruit (bearing trees times average fruit per tree), divided by the number of fruit projected to make a standard box at harvest (using the fruit size survey), reduced for droppage (the fraction of fruit counted at survey time, but lost to droppage before it was harvested). We have different surveys to collect the data.
“The sample design stratifies that state’s citrus belt into five nearly homogenous areas, and the bearing trees into five age groups. Sample groves for surveying are selected from the citrus tree inventory using probability sampling procedures. Regressions based upon the indicators and actual production from previous seasons are used to make projections based upon current conditions.”
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