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About the Citrus Crop Forecast
Candi Erick, agricultural statistics administrator with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ Florida Agricultural Statistics Service, describes the basics for creating a citrus crop forecast:
“The four basic parameters used in the forecast are number of bearing trees, number of fruit per tree, fruit size and fruit loss from droppage. The first two of these parameters have the greatest influence on the forecast.
“The general model incorporates the estimated total fruit (bearing trees times average fruit per tree), divided by the number of fruit projected to make a standard box at harvest (using the fruit size survey), reduced for droppage (the fraction of fruit counted at survey time, but lost to droppage before it was harvested). We have different surveys to collect the data.
“The sample design stratifies that state’s citrus belt into five nearly homogenous areas, and the bearing trees into five age groups. Sample groves for surveying are selected from the citrus tree inventory using probability sampling procedures. Regressions based upon the indicators and actual production from previous seasons are used to make projections based upon current conditions.”
Previous Forecasts
July, 2017 Final U.S. Citrus Crop Forecast Down 17 Percent from Last Season
June, 2017 June Citrus Forecast: Oranges Up; Tangerines Down
May, 2017 Citrus Crop Forecast Has Small Changes
April, 2017 Crop Forecast Sees Changes for Grapefruit, Tangerines and Mandarins
March, 2017 Orange Forecast Drops for Florida and California
February, 2017 Non-Valencia Oranges Cut to 35.0 Million Boxes
January, 2017 Small Changes in USDA Citrus Crop Forecast
December, 2016 USDA Citrus Crop Forecast Has Little Changes
November, 2016 FL Non-Valencia Oranges Increases 2M Boxes
October, 2016 First Florida Citrus Crop Forecast of the Season Shows Declines
July, 2016 Citrus Forecast Has Valencia Oranges Up Slightly
June, 2016 Citrus Crop Forecast Has Slight Increases
March, 2016 Citrus Crop Forecast Increases
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