U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)/National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) July 2018 Florida Citrus Crop Forecast
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged this month at 45.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 3.88 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 700,000 boxes are white and 3.18 million boxes are the red varieties.
The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 750,000 boxes.
Mark your calendar! The first USDA citrus crop forecast of the 2018-2019 season will be released at 12:00 noon ET/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time on on Thursday, October 11, 2018. You will be able to tune in and hear the numbers as they are given by Mark Hudson from USDA/NASS headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Coverage of the Citrus Crop Forecast is brought to you by
“The four basic parameters used in the forecast are number of bearing trees, number of fruit per tree, fruit size and fruit loss from droppage. The first two of these parameters have the greatest influence on the forecast.
“The general model incorporates the estimated total fruit (bearing trees times average fruit per tree), divided by the number of fruit projected to make a standard box at harvest (using the fruit size survey), reduced for droppage (the fraction of fruit counted at survey time, but lost to droppage before it was harvested). We have different surveys to collect the data.
“The sample design stratifies that state’s citrus belt into five nearly homogenous areas, and the bearing trees into five age groups. Sample groves for surveying are selected from the citrus tree inventory using probability sampling procedures. Regressions based upon the indicators and actual production from previous seasons are used to make projections based upon current conditions.”
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