U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)/National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) October 2018 Florida Citrus Crop Forecast
Given the dramatic decline in production that Hurricane Irma caused last season, citrus growers are eager to hear this season’s first forecast.
The initial citrus crop forecast for the 2018–19 season from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service will be released at 12:00 noon Eastern Time/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time on on Thursday, Oct. 11, 2018. You will be able to tune in and hear the numbers as they are given by Mark Hudson from USDA/NASS headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Please click in the player above for the Internet audio stream that will bring you the live forecast on Thursday, Oct. 11, 2018. The audio stream on this website will begin at approximately 12 noon Eastern Time/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time.
Follow along with the forecast. Please feel free to download the 2018-2019 – Citrus Crop Fill-in Chart.
ATTENTION LISTENERS: Please be aware this LIVE AUDIO CONFERENCE is sometimes a few moments late to start, and there is no background music in preview. So when you tune in at the scheduled time, please be patient as the conference call will be silent until USDA officials join the line to release the crop update.
Coverage of the Citrus Crop Forecast is brought to you by
“The four basic parameters used in the forecast are number of bearing trees, number of fruit per tree, fruit size and fruit loss from droppage. The first two of these parameters have the greatest influence on the forecast.
“The general model incorporates the estimated total fruit (bearing trees times average fruit per tree), divided by the number of fruit projected to make a standard box at harvest (using the fruit size survey), reduced for droppage (the fraction of fruit counted at survey time, but lost to droppage before it was harvested). We have different surveys to collect the data.
“The sample design stratifies that state’s citrus belt into five nearly homogenous areas, and the bearing trees into five age groups. Sample groves for surveying are selected from the citrus tree inventory using probability sampling procedures. Regressions based upon the indicators and actual production from previous seasons are used to make projections based upon current conditions.”
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