2019-20 Florida Citrus Crop Forecast
There has been some confusion on the next citrus forecast. The production numbers will be carried over from October, and will not change. Mark Hudson will not be delivering the conference call from Washington D.C. this month. There will be a release posted on the website that will reflect this, as well as the Maturity Testing Values for November 1. Sorry for any confusion this has caused.
William C. Curtis (Bill)
Agricultural Statistics Administrator
Division of Fruit and Vegetable
Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services
Due to no November crop forecast, the December crop forecast of the 2019-20 season is scheduled to be released at 12:00 noon Eastern Time/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time on Tuesday, December 10, 2019. You will be able to tune in and hear the numbers as they are given by Bill Curtis from USDA/NASS headquarters in Washington, D.C.
Please click in the player above for the internet audio stream that will bring you the live forecast on Tuesday, December 10, 2019. The audio stream on this website will begin before 12 noon Eastern Time/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time.
ATTENTION LISTENERS: Please be aware this LIVE AUDIO CONFERENCE is sometimes a few moments late to start, and there is no background music in preview. So when you tune in at the scheduled time, please be patient as the conference call will be silent until USDA officials join the line to release the crop update.
ABOUT THE CITRUS CROP FORECAST
The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ Florida Agricultural Statistics Service describes the basics for creating a citrus crop forecast:
“The four basic parameters used in the forecast are number of bearing trees, number of fruit per tree, fruit size and fruit loss from droppage. The first two of these parameters have the greatest influence on the forecast.
“The general model incorporates the estimated total fruit (bearing trees times average fruit per tree), divided by the number of fruit projected to make a standard box at harvest (using the fruit size survey), reduced for droppage (the fraction of fruit counted at survey time, but lost to droppage before it was harvested). We have different surveys to collect the data.
“The sample design stratifies that state’s citrus belt into five nearly homogenous areas, and the bearing trees into five age groups. Sample groves for surveying are selected from the citrus tree inventory using probability sampling procedures. Regressions based upon the indicators and actual production from previous seasons are used to make projections based upon current conditions.”
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