U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)/National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) July 2018 Florida Citrus Crop Forecast
The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is unchanged this month at 45.0 million boxes. The total is comprised of 19.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 26.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 3.88 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 700,000 boxes are white and 3.18 million boxes are the red varieties.
The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 750,000 boxes.
Mark your calendar! The first USDA citrus crop forecast of the 2018-2019 season will be released at 12:00 noon ET/9:00 a.m. Pacific Time on on Thursday, October 11, 2018. You will be able to tune in and hear the numbers as they are given by Mark Hudson from USDA/NASS headquarters in Washington, D.C.
USDA/NASS June 2018 Citrus Maturity Test Results and Fruit Size Form
Coverage of the Citrus Crop Forecast is brought to you by
ABOUT THE CITRUS CROP FORECAST
The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ Florida Agricultural Statistics Service describes the basics for creating a citrus crop forecast:
“The four basic parameters used in the forecast are number of bearing trees, number of fruit per tree, fruit size and fruit loss from droppage. The first two of these parameters have the greatest influence on the forecast.
“The general model incorporates the estimated total fruit (bearing trees times average fruit per tree), divided by the number of fruit projected to make a standard box at harvest (using the fruit size survey), reduced for droppage (the fraction of fruit counted at survey time, but lost to droppage before it was harvested). We have different surveys to collect the data.
“The sample design stratifies that state’s citrus belt into five nearly homogenous areas, and the bearing trees into five age groups. Sample groves for surveying are selected from the citrus tree inventory using probability sampling procedures. Regressions based upon the indicators and actual production from previous seasons are used to make projections based upon current conditions.”
Previous Forecasts
June 2018: Florida Citrus Forecast: Grapefruit Down Slightly
May 2018: Florida Citrus Forecast Sees Slight Decreases
April 2018: Florida Citrus Forecast: Oranges Hold Steady, Grapefruit Tumbles
March 2018: Florida Specialty Citrus Up; California Valencias Down
February 2018: Florida Orange Crop Forecast Falls Again
January 2018: January Citrus Crop Forecast Is Stable
December 2017: Citrus Crop Forecast: Oranges Down, Grapefruit Holds Steady
November 2017: Citrus Crop Forecast: Numbers Decline for Florida in All Categories
October 2017: Citrus Crop Forecast: Florida All Oranges at 54 Million Boxes
July 2017: Final U.S. Citrus Crop Forecast Down 17 Percent from Last Season
June 2017: June Citrus Forecast: Oranges Up; Tangerines Down
May 2017: Citrus Crop Forecast Has Small Changes
April 2017: Crop Forecast Sees Changes for Grapefruit, Tangerines and Mandarins
March 2017: Orange Forecast Drops for Florida and California
February 2017: Non-Valencia Oranges Cut to 35.0 Million Boxes
January 2017: Small Changes in USDA Citrus Crop Forecast
December 2016: USDA Citrus Crop Forecast Has Little Changes
November 2016: Increase in Florida Non-Valencia Oranges
October 2016: First Florida Citrus Crop Forecast of the Season Shows Declines
July 2016: Citrus Forecast Has Valencia Oranges Up Slightly
June 2016: Citrus Crop Forecast Has Slight Increases
March 2016: Citrus Crop Forecast Increases
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