Mark Hudson of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service issued the May 2017 citrus crop forecast.
United States forecast:
The 2016-2017 Florida all-orange forecast is up 1 million boxes to 68 million boxes. The total includes 33 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 35 million boxes of Valencia oranges. For the previous 10 seasons used in the regressions, the May all-orange forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 2 percent, with three seasons above and seven below, and differences ranging from 3 percent below to 5 percent above.
The forecast of non-Valencia production remains at 33 million boxes. Harvest is complete for the included varieties. The Navel portion of the non-Valencia forecast is unchanged at 800,000 boxes.
The forecast of Valencia production is 35 million boxes, up 1 million boxes from the April forecast. Weekly certifications in April averaged 3.43 million boxes, down 370,000 boxes from last season’s weekly utilization average. The row count survey conducted April 26-27, 2017, showed 68 percent of the Valencia rows are harvested. Estimated utilization to May 1, including an allocation for other use, is 25.2 million boxes. Processors were surveyed regarding fruit processed through April 30 and the estimated quantity remaining to be processed to the end of the season. Analysis of the row count survey, estimated utilization to the first of the month, and the processors report support raising the late orange forecast.
The forecast of all-grapefruit production is lowered 300,000 boxes to 7.8 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast remains at 1.5 million, while the red grapefruit forecast is lowered 300,000 boxes to 6.3 million. Estimated utilization to May 1, with an allocation for non-certified use, of white grapefruit is 1.5 million boxes and red grapefruit is 6.3 million boxes. The row count survey conducted April 26-27, 2017, indicated harvest is relatively complete for these varieties.
Florida Tangerines and Tangelos
The forecast of all tangerines and tangelos is lowered 10,000 boxes to 1.63 million. The forecast includes 600,000 boxes of the early tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst), 220,000 boxes of Royal tangerines, 530,000 boxes of Honey tangerines and 280,000 boxes of tangelos. The early portion of the tangerine forecast is final. Changes were made in the Royal tangerine forecast, down 20,000 boxes from last month. The Honey tangerine forecast is up 10,000 boxes based on utilization. The row count survey conducted April 26-27, 2017, indicated 94 percent of the Royal tangerine rows and 92 percent of the Honey tangerine rows were harvested. The tangelo portion of the all-tangerine forecast remains at 280,000 boxes. The row count survey showed harvest is over for this variety. If realized, this will be the lowest tangelo production recorded in a series dating back to the 1956-1957 season.
Citrus Maturity Test Results and Fruit Size form (.pdf)
The next citrus crop forecast will be Friday, June 9, 2017, at approximately 12 noon. You will be able to hear the forecast here on Citrus Industry.
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