Brazil Releases Season’s Final Orange Crop Forecast

Tacy CalliesBrazil, Crop Forecast


Brazil reported it will produce 386.79 million boxes of oranges in the 2019–20 season. This is the final forecast for the season and includes production from the São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro and West-Southwest Minas Gerais Citrus Belt.

Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, published the forecast on April 9. It represents a decrease of 0.54 percent compared to the first crop forecast of the season delivered in May 2019, which was 388.89 million boxes.

The 2019–20 orange crop in Brazil is 35.3 percent larger than the 2018–19 crop, when 285.98 million boxes were produced. The difference is attributed to the biennial production cycle of orange trees, that is, larger crops alternated with smaller ones.

Total orange production for the current crop in Brazil includes the following varieties:

• 76.27 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin and Rubi

• 19.83 million boxes of Valencia Americana, Seleta and Pineapple

• 118.29 million boxes of Pera Rio

• 125.81 million boxes of Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha

• 46.59 million boxes of Natal

The forecast report indicates productivity was 1,045 boxes per hectare, a decrease of six boxes per hectare compared to the original projection, although still a record. Several reasons were given for this historical milestone. Growers employed higher technology in replanting groves and adopted better cultural practices. Nature also contributed with favorable weather that enabled plants to reach full production potential in terms of fruit per tree.

“Ideal climatic conditions during winter and spring of 2018 favored abundant flowering and good setting of flowers and fruitlets, resulting not only in a high number of fruits per tree but also in a more homogeneous production, with close to 94 percent of fruits from first and second blooms,” states the forecast report.

The average fruit drop rate for Brazil’s Citrus Belt, accumulated since the beginning of the crop season, was 17.63 percent. “Field survey data confirmed the expectation that the fruit drop rate in this crop season would be the highest ever measured by Fundecitrus,” states the report. “The increased greening intensity and the population growth of fruit borer and fruit fly were the main reasons for a higher projected fruit drop rate as compared to that of previous years.”

See Brazil’s full 2019–20 forecast report.

Brazil’s first orange production forecast for the 2020–21 season will be released on May 11.

A U.S. citrus forecast was also released on April 9. See the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s April citrus crop forecast.

About the Author

Tacy Callies

Editor of Citrus Industry magazine