Global Orange Juice Production to Drop

Ernie NeffInternational, Orange Juice

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Global orange juice production for 2019-20 is estimated to slip 23 percent from last season, to 1.6 million tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. Much of the blame falls on Brazil and Mexico, where fewer oranges are expected to be available for processing.

Worldwide orange juice consumption is projected to be flat, though not down. Global trade is estimated to be lower with the expected drop in exports from Brazil and Mexico.

Brazil’s production is forecast to drop 22 percent to 1 million tons with fewer oranges for processing. Consumption and stocks are both estimated to be slightly higher while exports are forecast to be 15 percent lower with the drop in production. Even with lower supplies, Brazil remains the world’s largest orange juice producer and is projected to account for over three-fourths of global orange juice exports.

Orange juice production in the United States is estimated to be down 10 percent to 297,000 tons with the drop in oranges available for processing. Although consumption has trended lower for more than 20 years in the United States, this forecast is flat. Slightly higher exports and lower imports are anticipated to bring down stocks.

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Mexico’s production is projected to tumble by more than half to 90,000 tons due to significant reductions in orange supplies available for processing. Consumption and exports both are expected to drop, drawing down stocks.

Production in the European Union (EU) is estimated to be 21 percent lower at 84,000 tons, due to fewer oranges available for processing. (Read more about Europe’s orange forecast.) Consumption is down as the decline in production is expected to more than offset a slight increase in imports. Brazil is expected to remain the top orange juice supplier to the EU.

See the full Foreign Agricultural Service report on world citrus markets and trade here.

Source: USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service

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