World Non-Orange Citrus Production to Drop

Ernie NeffCrop Forecast

China produces more mandarins than any other country.

Global production of non-orange citrus — tangerines/mandarins, grapefruit, lemons and limes — in 2019-20 is estimated to be lower than the previous year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

TANGERINES/MANDARINS
Global production is estimated down 400,000 tons for 2019-20 to 31.6 million with declines in the European Union (EU), Morocco, Turkey and the United States more than offsetting a larger crop in China. Consumption and exports are both down on lower available supplies. Historically, production and consumption have been trending higher, nearly 20 years now on growth from China, the EU, Turkey and the United States.

China’s production is estimated to rise 1 million tons to a record 23 million due to favorable weather and rapid expansion in crop area devoted to newer easy-to-peel varieties. China is expected to continue to account for around 70 percent of global production and consumption and over one-quarter of global exports. The increase in production is expected to be consumed in the domestic market, while exports are estimated at last year’s level.

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Production in the EU is expected to drop 450,000 tons to 2.8 million as a result of unfavorable spring and fall weather conditions including heavy rains in Spain and Italy. With smaller supplies, consumption is down, imports are up, and exports are expected to remain steady. Morocco and South Africa are anticipated to remain the leading suppliers to the EU market.

Turkey’s production is estimated down 15 percent to 1.4 million tons due to a freeze during the bloom. Consumption is expected to decline with the reduced supplies, while exports have expanded with Russia expected to remain as the top market.

Production in Morocco is projected to fall 33 percent to 926,000 tons due to unfavorably high temperatures during the bloom and fruit set. Consumption and exports are also estimated to plunge with the drop in supplies.

U.S. production is estimated down 20 percent to 806,000 tons due to unfavorable weather that lowered yields. Consumption is down due to lower available supplies. Exports are flat with Canada and Japan expected to remain the top two markets.

GRAPEFRUIT
Global production in 2019-20 is estimated down slightly to 6.7 million tons due to unfavorable weather in Mexico and the United States. Consumption is expected to be down slightly while exports are estimated higher with an increase in exports from Turkey.

LEMONS AND LIMES
Global production in 2019-20 is estimated down 975,000 tons to 7.6 million as a result of lower production in Argentina, the EU, Mexico, Turkey and the United States. With the decline in available supplies, consumption, fruit for processing, and exports are all expected to be down. The decline in exports from Turkey more than offsets the record exports from South Africa.

See the full Foreign Agricultural Service report on world production of orange juice and citrus varieties here.

See the July crop forecast, the final of the 2019-20 season, for U.S. citrus-producing states.

Source: USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service

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