China Orange and OJ Forecasts

Ernie NeffForecast, International

China
Photo credit: Grigvovan/Shutterstock

Orange production in China is forecast to grow to 7.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 202021, up from 7.4 MMT in 201920, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported. The increase will be driven mainly by new trees planted a few years ago in Jiangxi and other provinces. Those trees have started to produce more fruit.

FAS says the expansion of planted area is expected to slow as increasing production volumes from prior year plantings have pushed prices down. The downward price trend is expected to continue, and industry experts expect that Chinese citrus demand is quickly approaching its saturation point.

China produces navels and other sweet orange varieties.

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Fresh orange consumption in China is expected to increase slightly to 7.36 MMT in 202021, up from 7.24 MMT the previous year. That expectation is based on the assumption there will be a gradual economic recovery from COVID-19 and sustained demand for fruit. FAS reported that Chinese consumers are increasingly opting for home delivery service and prefer branded oranges in prepacked promotional boxes for daily consumption.

FAS reports domestic production of frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) in China will remain flat in 202021 at 30,800 metric tons.

Consumers increasingly sought fresh fruit during the COVID-19 pandemic. “With the boom in online ordering, it is … easier for e-commerce retailers and online platforms to sell secondary quality fresh fruit direct to consumers” rather than having that fruit go to juice, FAS stated.

While the retail price of OJ products from concentrate is likely to remain steady, the price of imported FCOJ is forecast to rise on tight supplies, FAS reported. Major suppliers of imported OJ are likely to include Brazil, Israel, Taiwan, Thailand and Costa Rica.  

Read the full FAS report on citrus in China here.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service

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