NOAA Maintains High Hurricane Projection

Ernie NeffForecast, hurricane

Conditions remain conducive for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported in early August.   According to the latest NOAA outlook, the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15 to 21, including seven to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which three to five could … Read More

Hurricane Risk Dips Slightly

Ernie NeffForecast, hurricane


Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers on Aug. 5 slightly reduced the number of storms and hurricanes they expect in the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. The researchers reduced the number of expected storms to 18, down from 20 in the July forecast. The number of expected storms is now the same as CSU projected in June. As for the expected … Read More

Florida Production Faces Further Decline

Ernie NeffForecast, Production


Florida orange and red grapefruit production, already at historically low levels, will likely decline for years, according to a leading citrus economist. Tom Spreen, University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences professor emeritus, calculated Florida crop output through the 2031-32 season based on various yield and tree replacement assumptions. Oranges and red grapefruit are Florida’s top-producing varieties.   … Read More

China Orange and OJ Forecasts

Ernie NeffForecast, International

Orange production in China is forecast to grow to 7.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2020–21, up from 7.4 MMT in 2019–20, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported. The increase will be driven mainly by new trees planted a few years ago in Jiangxi and other provinces. Those trees have started to produce more fruit. FAS … Read More

Brazil’s Orange Forecast: Less Fruit, More Drop

Tacy CalliesForecast


The 2020–21 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt in Brazil is 269.36 million boxes. The updated forecast was published Dec. 10 by Fundecitrus and its cooperators. The decrease of 17.36 million boxes represents a 6 percent decline in crop size from the September forecast update. ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONSExpected production was significantly hindered by … Read More

Florida Orange, Grapefruit Forecast Trimmed

Ernie NeffForecast

The forecast for Florida orange and grapefruit production were each trimmed by approximately 2 percent on Dec. 10. Forecasts for all other citrus varieties in all citrus-producing states were unchanged from the initial October report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The Florida all-orange forecast is now for 56 million boxes, down from 57 million … Read More

Steger Forecast for Florida Oranges

Ernie NeffForecast

Elizabeth Steger, president of Citrus Consulting International, has forecast Florida’s 2020-21 orange crop at 62 million boxes. That is 8.35 percent fewer oranges than the 67.65 million boxes the state produced last season. [See the final 2019-20 season forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) here.] Steger has been forecasting the size of Florida’s orange crop prior to the … Read More

Southern Hemisphere Citrus Crop Forecast

Ernie NeffForecast, Industry News Release

A preliminary forecast for the Southern Hemisphere citrus season shows an expected small production decrease but an increase in exports. The first crop production and export forecast for the 2020 season was released by the World Citrus Organisation (WCO) on May 29. The preliminary forecast is collected from industry associations in Argentina, Australia, Chile, Peru, South Africa and Uruguay. The … Read More

Shepp ‘Thrilled’ by Orange Forecast

Ernie NeffForecast

“I’m absolutely thrilled to see that number,” Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC) Executive Director Shannon Shepp said after the 2018-19 Florida orange crop was forecast at 79 million boxes on Oct. 11. The strong forecast was issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service. “I have been looking for positive news for quite some time in this … Read More

Grower Sees Strong Future for Florida Citrus

Ernie NeffForecast, hurricane


Justin Sorrells of Sorrells Citrus comments on the first U.S. Department of Agriculture citrus crop forecast of the season and the future of the Florida citrus industry. “I think the numbers (forecast) were interesting — higher than I suspected … Maybe that means our state wasn’t impacted quite as heavily as we thought it was going to be,” Sorrells says. … Read More

Jonathan Brown Discusses Crop Forecast, Irma Damage

Ernie NeffForecast, hurricane


Citrus grower Jonathan Brown of Bethel Farms in Arcadia reacts to the Oct. 12 initial U.S. Department of Agriculture citrus crop forecast of 54 million boxes of Florida oranges. He also discusses damage from Hurricane Irma. “I was a little bit impressed that it (the forecast) came out where it did,” Brown says. “I was kind of expecting it to … Read More

Citrus Agency Hopes for Rebound After New Forecast

Daniel CooperCitrus, Forecast, Industry News Release


The Florida Department of Citrus is hoping for a better second half of the growing season after the latest decline in projections for the state’s orange and grapefruit harvest. Meanwhile, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam said a 4 percent drop from February to March in the forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture is another sign of the effects of deadly … Read More

First Florida Citrus Crop Forecast of the Season Shows Declines

Daniel CooperForecast

Candi Erick, agricultural statistics administrator with the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services’ Florida Agricultural Statistics Service, issued the initial citrus crop forecast of the 2016-17 crop season. Florida non-Valencia oranges are forecast at 34 million boxes, down from 36.1 million boxes at the end of the 2015-16 season. Valencia oranges were forecast at 36 million boxes, down from … Read More

Joe Davis Jr. Predicts Orange Crop Size; Discusses PFD Impact

Ernie NeffBactericides, Citrus Greening, Forecast, PFD

Crop size, PFD

Grower Joe Davis Jr., a panelist at a Peace River Valley Citrus Growers Association gathering Thursday, says he expects a Florida orange crop of 61 to 70 million boxes this season. Last season’s Florida orange crop was 81.5 million boxes. “Our groves are down,” Davis says. “We’re guessing that earlies and mids will probably be down about 10 percent, and … Read More

How to Irk the Crop Forecast Lady

Tacy CalliesForecast

citrus crop forecast

Candi Erick is keenly involved in production of Florida’s citrus crop forecasts. She’s easy to get along with, but there is one way to get under her skin. By Ernie Neff If you want to irritate Candi Erick, whose primary job is overseeing data collection leading to Florida’s citrus crop forecasts, just tell her, “It’s good enough for government work.” … Read More

Worst Case in 10 Years: Florida Orange Production at 27 Million Boxes

Ernie NeffCitrus Greening, Economics, Forecast

oranges worst case

In the worst-case scenario projected by economists Wednesday, Florida orange production could plummet to 27 million boxes in 10 years. Florida orange production last season was 81.5 million boxes. As recently as the 2003-04 season, Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges. Production declines are primarily caused by HLB, the deadly disease first discovered in Florida in 2005. But the … Read More

Putnam: Private Citrus Forecast ‘a Kick in the Gut’

Tacy CalliesForecast

Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Adam Putnam expresses pleasure at celebrating the 25th Citrus Expo and dismay at a private citrus forecast of 60.5 million boxes of Florida oranges next season. “Boy, what a kick in the gut that forecast was,” says Putnam, who is a citrus grower. He notes that post-bloom fruit drop no doubt played a role in the … Read More