Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast

Ernie Neff Crop Forecast

Northern Hemisphere lemon production is expected to increase, while oranges, grapefruit and soft citrus are forecast to decrease.

The World Citrus Organisation’s Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for 2021-22 projects production of 29.342 million tons, a 1.27% decrease from the previous season. The preliminary forecast was based on data from industry associations in Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia and Turkey, along with United States projections. The U.S. projections were based on U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports for Arizona, California, Florida and Texas. The forecast was presented during the Nov. 16-17 Global Citrus Congress.

The hemisphere’s orange production is projected to decrease by 3.45% to a total of 15.5 million tons. A slight decrease is also expected for grapefruit (-0.34%, 946.5 tons) and soft citrus (-0.7%, 8.5 million tons) production. Lemon production, on the other hand, is estimated to increase by 5.64% and reach 4.5 million tons.

In Europe, citrus production is forecast to experience a 9.35% decrease in Greece, a 7.74% decrease in Spain and a 2.62% decrease in Italy. In the Southern rim of the Mediterranean, production is projected to decrease in Tunisia (-21.97%) and remain stable in Egypt (-0.06%). Increases are expected in Israel (+26.63%), Turkey (+21.85%) and Morocco (+5.53%).

The 2021-22 U.S. citrus crop is expected to decrease by 11.79% compared to last year. In its initial estimate of the season on Oct. 12, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service forecast U.S. orange production to decline from 103.95 million boxes in 2020-21 to 91.05 million boxes in 2021-22. U.S. grapefruit production is forecast to increase from 10.4 million boxes to 10.8 million boxes. Lemons are expected to climb from 22.1 million boxes to 22.3 million boxes. Tangerines and tangelos are predicted to drop from 28.99 million boxes to 21.9 million boxes. See the U.S. forecast.

Source: World Citrus Organisation

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