On Aug. 4, Colorado State University (CSU) decreased its hurricane forecast for Atlantic seasonal activity and landfall strike probability for 2022. But citrus growers and other agriculturists shouldn’t relax their guard because the CSU Department of Atmospheric Science continues to call for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.
CSU now forecasts the Atlantic will have 18 named storms in 2022, down from 20 in its July 7 forecast. It expects 85 named storm days, down from 95 in July. The total named storm forecast of 18 includes three that had formed in the Atlantic as of Aug. 3: Alex, Bonnie and Colin.
The forecast is now for eight hurricanes, down from 10 in July. The number of projected hurricane days is 30, down from 40.
The number of major hurricanes expected is four, down from five in July. Major hurricane days are now projected at eight, down from 11.
MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL PROBABILITIES
The probability for at least one major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane landfall on the entire continental U.S. coastline after Aug. 4 is 68%. The full-season average for the last century is 52%.
CSU pegs the probability of major hurricane landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, at 43%. The full-season average for the last century is 31%.
The probability of major hurricane landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, is 43%. The full-season average for the last century is 30%.
BEHIND THE FORECAST
CSU reported that most of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean is slightly warmer than normal. It explained that warmer than normal water across the tropical Atlantic provides more fuel for tropical cyclones.
View the full Aug. 4 CSU forecast.
Learn about hurricane preparedness in Florida citrus groves from University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences experts.
Source: Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science
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