citrus forecast

Improvements to Florida Citrus Forecast

Daniel CooperCrop Forecast, Florida

citrus forecast

In the Dec. 8 citrus forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS), Florida’s grapefruit and tangerine/tangelo production estimates increased.

The all-grapefruit forecast for Florida leaped 26% compared to the season’s initial forecast in October. The state’s tangerine and tangelo forecast climbed 10%.

All other variety forecasts in the citrus-producing states — Arizona, California, Florida and Texas — were unchanged from the initial forecast.


The Florida all-grapefruit crop forecast jumped from an initial season forecast of 1.9 million boxes to 2.4 million boxes. Red grapefruit climbed from 1.65 million boxes to 2.1 million boxes. White grapefruit rose from 250,000 boxes to 300,000 boxes.

Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average, and fruit droppage is projected to be average. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is slightly above average, and projected droppage is below average. 

If the forecast is realized, Florida’s grapefruit crop will be 33% larger than last season’s final production. 


The Florida tangerine and tangelo forecast rose from an initial season forecast of 500,000 boxes to 550,000 boxes.


Although it didn’t alter the original crop size forecast for Florida oranges (20.5 million boxes), USDA NASS did provide information about fruit size and droppage.

It projected that non-Valencia orange fruit size will be below the minimum at harvest. Current droppage is above average and projected to be above average at harvest.

Valencia orange current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Droppage is expected to be above average at harvest. 

See the full USDA citrus crop forecast report here.

The next update to the citrus forecast will be on Jan. 12 at approximately 12:00 p.m. on the Citrus Industry website.


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