Climate scientist Michael Mann at the University of Pennsylvania School of Arts & Sciences and his team have predicted a record-breaking 33 named storms for the 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. They said the number of storms could potentially range from 27 to 39. The hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Earlier this spring, Colorado State University predicted 23 named storms and AccuWeather forecast from 20 to 25 named storms.
“We’ve seen many hyperactive seasons over the past decade, and in just about all cases, like our prediction for this year, the activity is substantially driven by ever-warmer conditions in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming,” said Mann. Mann is presidential distinguished professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Science and director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media.
This year’s predictions are influenced by particularly high sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR), which, in April, were recorded at more than 1.9°C above average according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Coral Reef Watch. In addition, the forecast incorporates the anticipated development of moderate La Niña conditions, marked by a Niño 3.4 region anomaly of -0.5°C, and assumes average conditions for the North Atlantic Oscillation during the coming fall and winter. The Niño 3.4 region is a specific area in the central Pacific Ocean used to monitor and measure sea surface temperature anomalies as part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic strategy.
Should ENSO conditions neutralize later in the year, the Mann team predicts a slightly reduced activity of from 25 to 36 storms, with 31 named storms as the most likely outcome. An alternative model, accounting for MDR sea surface temperature relative to the tropical average and incorporating the impact of negative ENSO conditions, suggests a lower level of activity.
Source: University of Pennsylvania
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