Hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) issued an update on July 9 for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Information obtained through early July indicates that this season will have hurricane activity well above the 1991–2020 average. CSU’s July forecast is higher in all categories compared to its June 11 forecast. A summary of the July forecast is as follows:
- Named storms: 25 (up from 23 in June; average is 14.4)
- Named storm days: 120 (up from 115 in June; average is 69.4)
- Hurricanes: 12 (up from 11 in June; average is 7.2)
- Hurricane days: 50 (up from 45 in June; average is 27)
- Major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5): 6 (up from 5 in June; average is 3.2)
- Major hurricane days: 16 (up from 13 in June; average is 7.4)
CSU forecasters continue to call for an extremely active season due to sea surface temperatures remaining near record warm levels. This is conducive for hurricane formation and intensification. Forecasters’ confidence this year is higher than normal for a July forecast based on the strength and persistence of the current hurricane-favorable large-scale environmental conditions.
The increase in overall forecast numbers is due in part to Hurricane Beryl. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average. The probabilities for at least one major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) landfall after July 8 are as follows for specific regions:
- Entire continental U.S. coastline: 57% (down from 62% in June; full-season average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
- U.S. East Coast, including Florida Peninsula (south and east of Cedar Key,
- Florida): 31% (down from 34% in June; full-season average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville: 38% (down from 42% in June; full-season average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
For more details, see CSU’s July forecast report here.
Source: Colorado State University
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