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Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers on Aug. 6 continued to call for an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. The August forecast is the same as the July forecast for all parameters except for named storms, which was reduced from 25 to 23.
Twelve of the named storms are predicted to reach hurricane strength. Six of the 12 hurricanes are forecast to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
The forecast for 12 hurricanes is tied with 2020 for the most hurricanes ever forecast for a CSU August outlook. In 2020, 14 hurricanes occurred. CSU has issued August forecasts since 1984.
So far, the 2024 hurricane season is exhibiting atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are similar to 1886, 1926, 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010 and 2020.
The team predicts that 2024 hurricane activity will be about 190% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2023’s hurricane activity was about 120% of the average season.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HURRICANES
The updated August forecast takes newly available weather data into consideration as the peak of the season approaches. The forecast team has higher confidence than normal that this season will be extremely busy.
It cites very warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic as the primary reason for the expectation for elevated activity. A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season because warm ocean water serves as a fuel source for hurricanes. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricanes.
LANDFALL PROBABILITY
The CSU report also includes an update on the probability of major hurricanes making landfall for the remainder of the season:
- 56% for the entire U.S. coastline (full season average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
- 30% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (full season average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
- 38% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville (full season average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
See CSU’s full August forecast here.
Source: CSU
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