The Orange Focus Group of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) on July 23 cut its projections for navel and Valencia orange exports in the 2024 season.
NAVELS
The projected number of 15-kilogram cartons of navel orange exports is now 21 million. That continues the downward trajectory that was started in May when the season-opening estimate of 25.7 million cartons was reduced to 22 million. This latest review brings the total reduction for the season to a significant 19%. Currently, late navels are being packed and shipped as the navel season draws to a close.
VALENCIAS
For Valencia oranges, key growing regions in Limpopo and Mpumalanga are well under way with their season. Growers in the Eastern and Western Cape will only start to pack their first Valencia volumes in earnest in the coming weeks.
The latest projected volume of 15-kilogram cartons of Valencias expected to be exported by Southern African growers is now 51.6 million. That’s down from May’s forecast of 56 million and April’s season-opening estimate of 58 million. This is an 11% reduction from the first estimate.
The largest downward adjustments reflected in the latest review come out of Letsitele, Hoedspruit and the Senwes (Marble Hall and Groblersdal) areas. Marble Hall and Groblersdal were hard hit by recent frost damage, further reducing production forecasts.
BAD WEATHER BLAMED
“Inclement weather over the past two weeks has meant further reduction in predicted volumes,” said Stiaan Engelbrecht, chairman of the Orange Focus Group. “The freezing cold in the Senwes region has meant that the navel estimate in that region has been reduced by 600,000 cartons and the Valencia volumes by 1 million cartons. The Western Cape (Citrusdal) has been impacted by recent flooding and storms, while the Eastern Cape has been impacted by high winds.”
Storms and winds cause fruit to drop from trees, while frost damage also impacts production.
“It is now clear that there will not be an oversupply of oranges this season; we are looking at a balanced market,” said Jan-Louis Pretorius, vice chairman of the CGA and a citrus grower in Limpopo. “These adjusted figures tell the story of a unique season. Firstly, drier and warmer conditions caused fruit sizes to be somewhat smaller. Secondly, a very good local juicing price enticed growers to move more oranges to processing. Thirdly, the bad weather of the past two and a half weeks caused challenges. The last time the industry was looking at similar orange figures was during the 2017 season, especially remembered for the Western Cape drought.”
Last year, South Africa packed 24.8 million 15-kilogram cartons of navels and 52.1 million 15-kilogram cartons of Valencias for export to foreign markets.
See an earlier report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service on South African orange and orange juice production projections here.
Source: Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa
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