National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service forecasters issued an Atlantic hurricane outlook update on Aug. 8 very similar to its initial outlook issued in May. Both outlooks projected an above-normal hurricane season.
The forecasters updated the number of expected named storms to 17 to 24 (with winds of 39 mph or greater), of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including four to seven major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). The outlook includes totals for the entire six-month hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability of this result. 2024 has only a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.
The Atlantic ocean basin is expected to be remarkably active due to several factors:
- Warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea
- Reduced vertical wind shear
- Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds
- An enhanced west African monsoon
These conditions are expected to continue into the fall. Of note, the dry Saharan air that prevented tropical storm development during portions of the middle of the summer is expected to subside in August.
NOAA’s Hurricane Season Outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.
See the full news release about NOAA’s Aug. 8 hurricane update here.
Colorado State University also recently updated its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season; see that update here.
Source: NOAA
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