The expected utilization of Florida’s 2024–25 citrus crop was the focus of economist Marisa Zansler’s Florida Citrus Outlook presentation to the Florida Citrus Commission (FCC) in October. Zansler is director of economic and market research for the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).
Before discussing expected utilization by varieties, Zansler pointed out that her outlook was based on the U.S. Department of Agriculture citrus forecast released Oct. 11. That forecast, which indicated all citrus production would be lower than the prior season, did not reflect the impacts of Hurricane Milton.
ORANGES
Approximately 90% of the 15 million boxes of Florida oranges forecast for 2024–25 is expected to be processed as orange juice (OJ). About 85% of the processed oranges will be used to make not-from-concentrate (NFC) OJ; 15% will be used for frozen concentrated orange juice.
Imports are projected down by nearly 20% with an estimated 23% decline in global OJ availability, based on a 30% decline in Brazil’s supply.
The combination of rising prices and reduced availability may lead some consumers to explore alternative beverages, Zansler said. That could potentially reshape long-term consumer habits and impact the market for traditional OJ.
GRAPEFRUIT
Florida’s grapefruit production is forecast at 1.4 million boxes, with certified fresh grapefruit utilization expected to account for approximately 65% of production. The remainder will be processed into NFC grapefruit juice.
Grapefruit juice availability is projected to decrease by 8.9% from the prior season. Retail sales are expected to be impacted by rising prices.
The domestic share of certified Florida fresh grapefruit is projected at 90% of total shipments, with the remaining 10% being exported to markets in Asia, Europe and Canada.
SPECIALTY CITRUS
The Florida specialty citrus crop estimate for 2024–25 is 400,000 boxes. Certified fresh shipments are expected to account for 68% of total production. Most shipments are destined for the domestic market.
Source: FDOC
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