Federal forecasts for Florida citrus production tumbled Dec. 10, led by a 20% decrease in oranges compared to the initial October forecast. The declines primarily reflect damage from Hurricane Milton, which was not accounted for in the initial forecast.
The 2024–25 season forecasts for all other citrus-producing states were unchanged from October.
The Dec. 10 Florida forecasts by variety are as follows:
ORANGES
The Florida all-orange forecast of 12 million boxes is 20% below the October forecast and would be 33% less than last season’s final production of 17.96 million boxes. The forecast consists of 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges, down 2 million boxes from October, and 5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges, down 1 million boxes from October.
Valencia orange fruit size is average and is projected to be average at harvest. Droppage is expected to be above the maximum at harvest.
Final non-Valencia fruit size is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
GRAPEFRUIT
The forecast of all-Florida grapefruit production is 1.2 million boxes, down 200,000 boxes or 14% from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 33% less than last season’s final production.
Red grapefruit, at 1.05 million boxes, is lowered 150,000 boxes from the October forecast. Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average, and droppage is projected to above the maximum.
The white grapefruit forecast is down 50,000 boxes to 150,00 boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average and projected droppage is above average.
LEMONS
The forecast for lemons, 500,000 boxes, is the only Florida crop forecast that is unchanged from October.
TANGERINES AND MANDARINS
The forecast of Florida tangerines and mandarins is 350,000 boxes, down 50,000 boxes from the October forecast.
FLORIDA CITRUS MUTUAL REACTS
Florida Citrus Mutual (FCM) Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer Matt Joyner noted that the December forecast “reflects the severe impact of Hurricane Milton.” He said Florida citrus growers require investments in hurricane recovery as well as continued research and innovation. FCM is seeking federal hurricane relief funds.
According to FCM, Florida legislative leaders, including Florida Senate President Ben Albritton, Senator Ed Hooper (chair of the Senate Committee on Appropriations) and Senator Jason Brodeur (chair of the Appropriations Committee on Agriculture, Environment and General Government), among others, have pledged their support for Florida’s citrus growers. In the upcoming legislative session, beginning March 2025, FCM will prioritize advocacy efforts to secure critical resources to address ongoing challenges such as pests, disease, hurricanes and other factors impacting citrus production.
See the full December citrus forecast report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS) here. The next forecast will be issued on Jan. 10.
Source: USDA NASS
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