Florida Winter Weather Trends

Florida state climatologist David Zierden recently discussed past and present weather impacts on Florida citrus and said the next three months of winter are projected to be warmer than usual. Zierden, of Florida State University’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, spoke during a virtual Winter Weather Lunch Break on Dec. 10.

PAST

Zierden said 13 freezes occurred over a 162-year period that “had a tremendous impact on the citrus industry in Florida.” The freezes occurred in February 1835, December 1894, February 1895, February 1899, December 1934, January 1940, December 1962, January 1977, January 1981, December 1983, January 1985, December 1989 and January 1997.

The freeze of 1899 set the Florida record for cold at minus 2 degrees in Tallahassee and brought measurable snow from the Panhandle to Tampa and Jacksonville. Zierden showed a photo of late 19th century state legislators engaged in a snowball fight on the state Capitol steps in Tallahassee.

The freezes of the 1980s, along with land development, “really pushed the citrus industry even further south,” Zierden said. He credited former University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences horticulturist Larry Parsons for pointing out that the significant citrus freezes mostly came during climate “neutral” phases, rather than during El Niño or La Niña phases.

PRESENT

In recent years, Zierden reported, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere greatly increased greenhouse gas concentrations. These concentrations are much larger than in previous history, leading to atmospheric warming.

Zierden said 2023 was the warmest year on record “by a long shot” and said 2024 “is outpacing 2023, assuring a new record” for warm weather. He noted that Florida hasn’t experienced below-average temperatures since 2011.

FUTURE

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) December to February weather outlook favors “above normal temperatures during the winter months for the southern tier of the United States, especially including Texas and Florida,” Zierden said. The NOAA outlook also calls for below-normal precipitation across the northern Gulf Coast and Florida during the winter, he reported.

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