The Feb. 11 citrus crop forecast, as reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS), shows both decreases and an increase for Florida when compared to the January forecast.
LESS ORANGES
The 2024–25 Florida orange forecast is 11.5 million boxes, down 500,000 boxes, or 4%, from the January forecast. If realized, this will be 36% less than last season’s final production of 17.96 million boxes. The forecast consists of 4.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season and Navel varieties) and 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges.
The 500,000-box reduction was in non-Valencia production. Valencia oranges are unchanged from last month, at 7 million boxes.
The Row Count survey conducted Jan. 28–29, showed 95% of the early and mid-season non-Valencia rows, excluding Navels, are harvested. The Navel forecast is 100,000 boxes.
The current fruit size of Valencia oranges is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
GRAPEFRUIT DOWN
The forecast for the Florida grapefruit crop now stands at 1.1 million boxes, down from 1.2 million boxes in January. Production for both red and white varieties is down. Both varieties fell by 50,000 boxes, representing an 8% total decline for Florida grapefruit. Last season, the Sunshine State produced 1.79 million boxes of grapefruit.
TANGERINES AND MANDARINS UP
A bright spot in the February citrus forecast for Florida is that tangerines and mandarins are now expected to be 350,000 boxes for the 2024–25 season. This is up 17% from the January estimate of 300,000 boxes.
LEMONS HOLDING STEADY
Lemon production in Florida this season is expected to more than double the state’s tangerine and mandarin production. Florida lemons are forecast to be 600,000 boxes, unchanged from last month.
OTHER STATES
The February citrus crop forecasts for California, Texas and Arizona are unchanged from January.
See the full February forecast report from USDA NASS here.
The next crop forecast will be released on March 11.
Source: USDA NASS