Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service have predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.
NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which goes from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those storms, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The season is expected to be above normal due to a confluence of factors, including:
- Continued ENSO-neutral conditions
- Warmer than average ocean temperatures
- Forecasts for weak wind shear
- The potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes
All of the above elements tend to favor tropical storm formation. The higher heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.
This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.
NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2025 Atlantic hurricane outlook in early August, prior to the historical peak of the season.
See how NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season forecast compares to earlier forecasts by AccuWeather and Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU forecast includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall.
Source: NOAA
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