Financial Conference Covers Tariffs and Economic Outlook

The Florida Agricultural Financial Management Conference returned Sept. 30 to Oct. 2 after several years of hiatus. The event was held at the Margaritaville Resort in Kissimmee, Florida.

Speakers covered topics including measuring financial performance, risk management, optimizing business operations and cybersecurity. Ed Seifried, professor emeritus of economics and business at Lafayette College in Easton, Pennsylvania, was a featured speaker. The well-known economist provided several macroeconomic observations about the current financial standing of the United States.

Tariffs’ Impact

One of the biggest economic stories of the year has been the Trump tariffs. Seifried stated that, from a purely economic standpoint and based on most schools of economic thought, he does not favor tariffs.

However, he cited three financial reasons why Trump has made tariffs a central part of his economic agenda:

1. It is a mean world out there, and our adversaries are playing hard ball and conflicts are always a threat. 

2. In this global environment, the United States does not want to depend on foreign countries, especially adversaries, for critical goods like weapons, medicine or key raw materials such as aluminum and titanium. Thus, the tariffs are meant to encourage domestic production. “There are sectors critical to our economy that need protection,” Seifried said. 

3. If a country imposes a tariff on American goods, the U.S. should respond in kind. “If a country puts a tariff on our agricultural products, we should do the same to them,” Seifried noted.

Beyond these reasons, Seifried emphasized that tariffs are generally detrimental and disrupt markets. “In April, Trump announced a 90-day delay on tariffs,” he said. “The next day, the stock market recorded its highest rise in history. What does that tell you about tariffs? The market hates them, too.”

The tariff threat has prompted countries, including Japan and the European Union, to negotiate individual trade deals. Seifried noted that, so far, consumers have not felt the tariffs’ impact too heavily. And inflation has not been overly triggered by the tariffs. However, he cautioned that history shows the burden of tariffs ultimately falls on consumers in the long run.

Economic Growth?

Seifried also provided a long-term outlook for economic growth, drawing from multiple sources. He described the outlook as not negative but tempered, with GDP growth expected to range between 1.5% and 2% for the foreseeable future. A key theme of Seifried’s presentation was that the United States, blessed with the world’s largest economy by far, can absorb disruptions from inflation, trade battles and economic downturns far better than any other country.