A recent U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS) report — Citrus: World Markets and Trade — included global tangerine/mandarin projections for 2025–26.
Global fresh tangerine/mandarin production is forecast up less than 1% to 38.4 million tons. Larger crops in China, Turkey, Morocco, South Africa and Japan more than offset smaller European Union (EU) and U.S. harvests.
Processing volumes are also roughly unchanged at 1.5 million tons as increased processing in China more than offsets a decline in the United States.
China production is forecast up 100,000 tons to 27.1 million tons on favorable weather conditions in top growing regions Guangxi and Yunnan.
EU production is forecast down 6% to 2.8 million tons on delayed fruit ripening in Spain and smaller fruit sizes in Italy.
U.S. production is forecast down 112,000 tons to 997,000 tons as California production is expected to fall after last year’s bumper crop.
CONSUMPTION
Fresh tangerine/mandarin consumption is forecast roughly unchanged at 36.2 million tons as lower consumption in the EU and Turkey offset increased consumption in Russia and Japan.
GLOBAL EXPORTS
Global fresh tangerine/mandarin exports are forecast up more than 10% to 4.8 million tons as increases are projected for the top five countries. Türkiye accounts for most of this increase as exports are projected up 392,000 tons to 1 million tons on rebounding production and increased international demand.
U.S. IMPORTS
U.S. tangerine/mandarin imports are forecast up 4% to 555,000 metric tons in 2025–26. If realized, this will set a record for the second consecutive year and account for nearly half of U.S. fresh tangerine/mandarin consumption.
Imports are projected up on lower U.S. production and higher exportable supplies in Morocco and Chile. Chile and Peru are the top two sources for U.S. tangerine/mandarin imports. Chile exports are forecast up slightly in 2025–26, and more than 90% of shipments have historically been destined for the United States. Peru exports are projected to remain stable.
Since only minimal growth is expected in the top suppliers, U.S. imports are not projected to fully offset the decrease in domestic production. The total U.S. tangerine/mandarin supply is forecast at 1.6 million tons in 2025–26, 5% below the record volume reached in 2024–25.
Source: USDA FAS
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